Welcome back! In part 1, I described some common tricks the pundits use to make their predictions appear accurate after the fact. I won’t be using any of those tricks for my predictions. There are two reasons for this. First, I don’t have an army of pundits backing me up. The self-reinforcing nature of pundits accounts for over half of the perception that they are all geniuses. Second, I am a humorist on the internet. Sometimes people laugh at the things I write. Playing the fool is an honored tradition. Besides, when I am wrong I will get to write a post berating myself, and that’s considered “easy content” in the blogging world.
What I will do, however, is give a “percentage of certainty” with each prognostication. This might be a low number, indicating that I am not quite certain, or a high number, meaning I am very certain. Don’t put too much emphasis on the number itself. I’m using Common Core math, so the percentages can mean anything I like.
Horse racing is very boring if you can’t bet on the long shots. It is the same with the prediction game. Some of these might seem pretty outlandish. All I can say is, if you ever have a chance to bet on a racing horse named “Sensible Shoes” at 80 to 1, you’d be a fool to pass it up.
Note: All of these events are happening later this year (2016).
BREXIT [70% certainty of predictive accuracy]
On June 23 the subjects of Great Britain will vote to remain in the European Union. I want to be wrong on this one. If I was a citizen and eligible I would vote to leave. European governments always seem to get the votes they need to pass whatever cockeyed law they want to enact, however, and I don’t see enough citizens ready to change that yet.
Republican National Convention [125%]
The RNC will hold their national convention July 18-21 in Cleveland, OH. Trump will be the Republican nominee. Cruz will not be given a prime-time speech. There will be protests that will be weirder than anyone can imagine, but they will neither disrupt the convention or be given that much attention in the press. Cleveland will not burn down. Wild Card prediction: Paul Ryan will also not be given a prime-time speaking slot [50%].
Democratic National Convention [100%]
The DNC will hold their national convention July 25-28 in Philadelphia, PA. Hillary will win the nomination, but she will need a lot more super delegates to pull this off than anyone acknowledges today. Violence will occur both inside and outside the convention. Nobody will die in the convention-related mayhem. The press will report that the Democratic party is far more unified than Republicans will ever hope to be. Delegates are merely sporting the black eyes of unity.
Vice Presidents [32.65%]
Each candidate will reveal their running mate in late June. Trump might be smarter about this and wait until the convention, since it will otherwise be a pretty boring affair. He is currently floating trial balloons (we keep seeing lists of potential candidates), but I have no idea who he will eventually go with, so I’m not predicting that.
Hillary, on the other hand, will pick Elizabeth Warren. It makes too much sense not to. What is better than one crusty old grandma? Two crusty old grandmas! Should something happen to Hillary, like aliens calling her back to her mother planet, Warren slots right in. Nobody would even notice. The most important reason of all is that Bill Clinton will be playing a pivotal role in daily Presidential affairs. Hillary can’t afford “distractions” that tempt her husband because it will reflect poorly on her legacy. You can’t get less distracting than Fauxcahontas.
Side Notes: It thrills me that Google recognizes ‘Fauxcahontas’ during autocomplete, and sorry if I ruined your meal.
This happens every single election cycle so it is hardly worth including, but I want to say I got at least one thing right, so I’ll “predict” it. The polls will show Hillary in the lead, even if just barely, through Oct 31. They will then show a Trump swing, and by election day he will be leading just inside the margin of error. Let’s estimate that at 4%. The reason this is so easy to predict is because it is the story every single election season. Pundits want the Democrat to win, so they’ll produce polls that show that. They also need credibility, so about a week before the election the numbers will “drift” toward their final predictions. Pollsters get paid according to how accurate they were last cycle, so they’ll be accurate on the only poll that will be remembered when the next election cycle comes up: the one they release the day before the election.
Will Hillary Be Indicted? [182.0000000075%]
This is an interesting question that you can use to eliminate “idiots” found in every herd of concerned citizens. Hillary will not be indicted. She will not go to jail. Anyone claiming otherwise does not understand “street politics.” They might be engaging in wishful thinking, or just be incredibly naive. Eliminate any other political predictions they might offer. Yes, this means you can ignore RedState.
This prediction is incredibly easy to make. First, the Justice Department has already gone on record saying, in effect, “Just because the FBI hands us a case does not mean we are obliged to act upon it.” In plebian-speak, this means that if the FBI hands a slam-dunk case to the Obama Justice Department they will not use it to bring politically-dangerous charges. This makes sense. Hillary knows where the bodies are buried. Obama knows she knows where the bodies are buried. And Hillary knows that he knows that she knows where the bodies are buried. Plus, her testicles outweigh his by a factor of four.
If you are interested in where the bodies are buried, check the sand trap on the 11th hole at Farm Neck Golf Club in Oak Bluffs. Follow the money; tell no one.
Even if the FBI brings a case, and the Justice Department acts on it, a high-level sacrificial lackey will be produced to take the fall. This isn’t even that likely. What is far more likely is that Hillary settles any charge and agrees to pay a fine. A “large fine” we will be told. Record-setting, in fact. No, she isn’t pleading guilty to anything in particular, in fact this outcome exonerates her. No, you can’t know the details because she is running for President. Did we mention it will hurt her, financially? The fine will be paid by Mark Zuckerberg out of petty cash and they’ll all laugh at how stupid Americans are.
They won’t be wrong.
The Hugo Awards [ 50%]
The Hugo Awards are given for the best science fiction and fantasy stories in various categories at the World Science Fiction Convention held annually. This year it takes place August 17-21 in Kansas City, MO. The convention is called MidAmeriCon II. You’d think authors could come up with a better name, but it is really a reflection on the poor state of what I call “author world”.
I’ll admit my prediction here is a long shot, but I’m still pretty confident.
On July 5, an obscure parody site that nobody bothers with will print a “leaked report” from the nefarious Vox Day about his evil plan to destroy the convention by actually attending it. A volunteer force of 100 or so Ilk, Dread Ilk, and Vile Faceless Minions will join him. They will all wear grey bowler hats, identical suits, and carry briefcases. The briefcases may or may not be empty.
On July 6, Vox Day will write a blistering post belittling the site, yet not outright denying the report. It will contain lines like, “I’d NEVER ask the Ilk to wear grey bowlers. They would be black,” and “Matching briefcases would also be black, and have Make America Great Again bumper stickers emblazoned diagonally on the outside.” He will further add, “The briefcases would not be empty. They would either contain John C. Wright novels, a Chuck Tingle book, or any picture of Milo Yiannopoulos posted daily on Twitter. If you open your briefcase and someone isn’t triggered, you’ve done it wrong.” You know, if he was to actually attempt something so outrageous.
The folks at File 770 will laugh at the infighting and call everyone racists.
A few days later a post on Alpha Game will discuss how manly bowler hats are, and where to purchase one, and how to size them properly, so you don’t look like a dewberry. Many commenters will swear this is true and that their “special someone” told them, “No, leave just the hat on” when retreating to their bedrooms or hot tubs.
People at File 770, always wise to the enemy’s wiles, will take notice. Doubts will begin to fester.
Over the next couple of weeks, fans of Vox Popoli will post pictures of themselves wearing bowlers and holding briefcases, for no discernible reason. A great debate will erupt with everyone arguing about which picture of Milo is most triggering. Good grief, that would make a funny cartoon strip. See, this is why our comic is the way it is.
File 770 regulars will start to panic. Surely WorldCon rules forbid Vox Day from attending the convention? What, THEY DON’T?!
Sensing publicity and signalling opportunities, the heavy hitters in sci-fi author world will chime in. John Scalzi will write posts about how oppressive bowler hats are. George RR Martin, the voice of reason, will discuss how to change the rules to outlaw bowler, and all other hatwear, at future WorldCons. NK Jemison will ragequit Twitter again because someone DM’d her a bowler picture. Upon investigation, it will be a targeted advertisement, and she will threaten a lawsuit.
Larry Correia will write a hilarious post about the travails of Wendell the Manatee trying to find a bowler in his size that will hold its shape underwater. Articles will appear at both Mad Genius Club and According to Hoyt talking about the bowler in history, and what pivotal role it played. These articles will speculate that it might play a role again.
They won’t be wrong. The File 770 regulars, now completely panicked, will finally figure out the real ploy. If 250 (the number will be exaggerated by then) people dressed in matching suits, bowlers, and briefcases attend MidAmeriCon II, nobody will know which one is the real Vox Day. Bowler-clad racist hooligans will disrupt every single event throughout the convention. Nobody wants the racism, sexism, homophobia, or supremacy to rub off on them, which they know happens via 1) proximity and 2) reading the wrong authors. Notice how Nazis are always shown saluting in groups? That will be them before the awards ceremony on Saturday night! Because proximity!
They won’t know whether to run, or even in which direction. Bowler-wearing haters will be stationed next to every exit, buffet table, and gender-neutral bathroom. Worse, many will give horrified onlookers a knowing smile, and threaten to open their Trump-encrusted briefcases.
On August 1 convention organizers will pull the plug. Deaths will occur if the convention takes place. Odds are good that people will have died already. It will not be a total loss. John Scalzi, who will have been polishing the actual award statuettes all summer, will offer to hold the Hugo Awards Ceremony on his lawn. No bowler hats or briefcases allowed. GRRM and the Neilsen-Haydens will be the only attendees. Eight categories will be no-awarded. Deeply depressed, the foursome will eat 750 bags of asterisk-shaped M&Ms prepared as a novelty prize for the convention-goers. The video, lasting almost three-and-a-half minutes, will garner over five million views on youtube.
Vox and the Ilk, Dread Ilk, and Vile Faceless Minions, will hold an online wake and they will all express what a pain it is to cancel plane tickets and hotel reservations, especially with all the virtual confirmation numbers they might not have ever actually received. They’ll keep the bowlers, however, because chicks dig them.
President Trump [90%]
Trump will be elected President on Nov 8. He will win by about 8% of the popular vote and take around 350 electoral votes. Everyone who threatened to move to Canada will find a reason not to. Dang it.
The Culture War Will Continue [145,098%]
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the culture war will continue to rage. We’ll still be here, offering what little aid we can to our cultural libertarian allies.
The Spork Speaks — Tempest in a Teardrop — tempestinateardrop.wordpress.com